Over the Wire

The Global Warming Debate: Information Overload?

Post by Kathy Steinberg, Research Manager, Public Relations Research

Following up on Laura's post and yesterday's New York Times article, I thought I'd throw in my two-cents regarding the recent decline in the proportion of Americans who believe in global warming.

As Laura pointed out, there is now A LOT of information available to the public about global warming and climate change. Thanks to the Internet and the recent increase in the amount of attention paid to this issue by scientists, politicians, and the media, detailed reports about the science behind global warming can easily be accessed by the average web surfer.

Unfortunately, however, the increased availability of accurate data has been accompanied by a simultaneous dissemination of DISinformation -- false or inaccurate information that is spread deliberately to influence public opinion or obscure the truth.

Princeton professor Julian Zelizer noted in the Times that "one of the main tactics of opponents of environmental regulation since the 1940s has been to challenge the science" -- such strategies are neither new nor surprising, but that doesn't excuse our complacency in allowing such propaganda. Here (as on most issues), I must agree with the late author and conservationist Douglas Adams, who wrote that "all opinions are not created equal -- some are a very great deal more robust, sophisticated and well-supported in logic and argument than others".

In the case of global warming, logic and argument are bolstered by hard science: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which represents the consensus of the international scientific community, has concluded that global warming IS currently taking place and is very likely caused by human activities. ["Very likely" is a technical term which denotes a greater than 90% certainty that global warming is caused by man's burning of fossil fuels.]

Yet, despite all the evidence, skepticism and uncertainty -- fueled by disinformation -- abound. For example:

• The Great Global Warming Swindle, a "documentary" that challenges the idea that global warming is man-made, is under investigation for falsifying scientific data.
• The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), a group that similarly insists that "nature, not human activity, rules the planet", was recently exposed for its extensive ties to (and funding from) Exxon-Mobile.

Now, the recent Harris Poll data reveal that much of the decrease in the percentage of Americans who believe in global warming (71% in 2007 vs. 51% in 2009) may be attributed to an increase in the proportion who are "not sure" (6% in 2007 vs. 21% in 2009).

So, in my opinion, the declining belief in global warming suggests not that there is too much information available, but that the wrong information is being disseminated and, more dangerously, touted and perceived as accurate.

That being said... how could we possibly decide where to draw the line? Is the risk of disinformation the price we pay for freedom of speech and freedom of press? And is it worth it?

Data Snapshot

Nearly 3 in 4 Democrats (73%) believe in global warming, compared to 49% of Independents and only 28% of Republicans.---The Harris Poll, conducted online between November 2nd and 11th, 2009 among 2,303 U.S. adults 18+

Is Ignorance Bliss?

Perhaps we are stymied by all the information available on climate change and the health of our planet...but Americans seem more confused and/or skeptical about global warming than ever before. According to a Harris Poll released yesterday:

• Only 41% of Americans think global warming should be treated as a "very serious" problem, compared to 47% in 1997. And Americans are twice as likely today to say global warming is "not a serious problem" at all -- 22% compared to 11% in 1997.
• When asked directly if carbon dioxide and other gases being released into the atmosphere (if unchecked) leads to global warming and an increase in average temperatures, only about 1 in 2 Americans say yes -- a HUGE drop over the past decades when the figure hovered around 70-75%.
• Almost 3 in 4 Americans are unsure or incorrect about what is being discussed at the international conference in Copenhagen next week (correct answer = global warming and climate change).

I will leave the interpretation on the decline in attitudes yet pervasive lack of awareness (is the available information considered confusing? conflicting? monotonous? irrelevant?) to Kathy Steinberg, our resident "Green Queen" here at Harris. More on this from Kathy tomorrow...

***

Addenda:  See NYTimes article for added perspective on the Harris Poll data and the partisan divide around climate change.

Data Snapshot

Only 28% of Americans are aware that global warming and climate change is the main topic of the upcoming international conference in Copenhagen.---The Harris Poll, conducted online between November 2nd and 11th, 2009 among 2,303 U.S. adults 18+

Give the Guy a Break!

Poor Obama...he seemed so great when we first met him a couple of years ago...we didn't know him that well then, but he said all the right things and always looked so handsome in a suit. But now that we've been "dating" long enough, he's started squeezing the toothpaste from the center of the tube and leaving his old recyclables in the trash. And so we've had just about enough!

To follow up on yesterday's post, Obama's popularity has sunk 16 percentage points in the past 6 months (according to the latest Harris Poll).

But while that trend is clear, the reasons why are not.

Among those who like the job Obama is doing, the most cited reasons are that he:

• Is trying to bring about much-needed change
• Is working for the people's best interests and doing the right thing
• Seems to care about everyone
• Isn't George W. Bush

Among those who don't like the job he is doing, the top reasons are that he:

• Is spending too much
• Is not effective
• Has not lived up to campaign promises
• Is not experienced

But in both cases, no one reason truly outshines any other (i.e., not one garners more than 13% of that side's opinion). So, while Obama struggles to please the populace, he will be hard-pressed to figure his way out. One example: 4% of those dissatisfied feel change is happening too fast, while another 4% feel change isn't happening fast enough! And if change comes, then he will likely upset us by either spending more than we want or being occasionally ineffective or experiencing some new-to-the-job pains.

Any ideas, voting public, on how Obama can please all of the people all of the time? Or are there no exceptions to Lincoln's adage? 

Data Snapshot

Only 9% of the American public think Barack Obama is doing an excellent job.---The Harris Poll, conducted online between November 2nd and 11th, 2009 among 2,303 U.S. adults 18+

Action Expresses Priorities

You know how you look in the mirror and it doesn't feel like you've changed, but when you think back over the past decade, you barely recognize the person you once were? (or was that just TMI?) Well, so it goes for us as a country.

Eight years of GWB rambled by...and now, here we are with our celebu-prez, whose hopeful luminescence seems to fade with each passing Harris Poll (the most recent approval rating is a meager 43% positive, compared to a semi-radiant, out-of-the-gate 55% back in March). And it's not just the name of our President that has changed --- so have we and our priorities.

According to the latest Harris Poll, today, in November 2009:

• We cite health care as the top issue for the government to address, when it was third a decade ago;
• The economy in general and JOBS in particular are also at the top of our list, when not even 10% of the adult population considered these issues a top priority ten years ago; and,
• While war and Social Security may still be priorities to us now, it's certainly not with the same significance as in the recent past.

Paul Krugman of the NY Times wrote today that the urgency behind finding jobs as a policy priority has all but vanished, despite the economic recovery having yet to trickle down to employed and unemployed Main Street Americans (such as the 24% who flag "jobs" as the key priority facing our government right now). This is just my ineloquent paraphrase of his editorial, but it does highlight an interesting gap between the people and the administration (and what, how, and how well we address key issues).

And it may help explain some of the current frustration with Obama's policy proposals and his declining approval rating... More on this tomorrow...

Data Snapshot

57% of the American public rate the overall job President Obama is doing negatively.---The Harris Poll, conducted online between November 2nd and 11th, 2009 among 2,303 U.S. adults 18+

Took Some Time To Celebrate... At Home

Are we as a nation growing up -- or has the economy just tempered our need to party til the sun comes up?

According to the latest Harris Poll, most Americans will still go to the same number of parties and spend the same amount of time with family this year as they did last year...

But for a significant minority, the thought of building a fire, grabbing a Scrabble game board, and just hanging out has become even more appealing:

• 38% will spend more family time at home (only 7% will spend less family time at home);
• 23% will spend less time doing family activities away from home (17% more);
• 30% will spend less time attending holiday parties (12% more); and,
• 38% will spend less time hosting holiday parties (10% more).

Why the increased focus on family? Is it the holiday spirit? The economy? Or just a good old fashioned "family first" mentality?

Whatever the reason, and however you choose to spend it, to all: may you and your family have a great Thanksgiving!

Data Snapshot

When it comes to holiday shopping, 27% of Americans plan to spend more time this year than last year shopping online, while only 11% plan to spend more time shopping in stores.---The Harris Poll, conducted online between November 2nd and 11th, 2009 among 2,303 U.S. adults 18+